Investment Behaviors & Beliefs

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In other words, silver is merely an afterthought for most big miners. Professionals in financial services industries are well-trained in appealing to human emotions like greed and fear.

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Ironically, even exceptional investors can get caught up in manias, bubbles and strange moments… just like the average investor. Exceptional investors know how to protect themselves from big losses.

Unfortunately, the average investor is rarely prepared with a clear exit strategy to protect against big losses. Their advice was less than one month prior to the lows of the bear market that began in March If bad timing were an award show talent, SmartMoney would win an Academy Award! My first memory of investing occurred at the age of Prior to attending, I assumed that I might easily purge the concepts from memory shortly after the posting of my grades.

Still, my junior year economics teacher set off to change that. He had a different lesson plan in mind… and it would prove quite memorable. Once class began, he informed us that — for the next few months — we were going to work on a unique project that would cover the importance of investing. After all, the U. After handing each of us the business section of the Sunday newspaper, our teacher provided us with our instructions.

Individually, each student would select two stocks to invest in. Then the class would compile all of the ticker symbols of the chosen stocks to create an imaginary fund.

At the end of the project, the class with the best performing fund would be crowned champion. After all, with no real direction on how to choose investments, all one has is what seems familiar AND cool, right? Each week, we eagerly scoured the business section to find out just how much money our stocks and fund had made, or lost. The end of the project was soon upon us and, alas, my class managed to pull out the win. And although we came out on top, the deciding factor boiled down to which class lost the least amount of money.

The pay-off for our well-honed stock picking skills? We got to wear pirate hats made of newspaper for an entire day. So why was this investment experience so memorable for me? I wondered how any class or team or person might be described as a winner based on having lost the least amount of money. If every class only managed to lose money, then why invest at all? I expressed my concern to the teacher. Is that the way to make money? Lesson learned… I guess.

Does this buy-hold-n-hope approach sound familiar? Most people still regard the advice of my high school economics teacher as both sensible and logical. The fact is, however, the average investor considers only the scenarios in which an investment works out. Few recognize the impact of losing, let alone the possibility of losing big. I have to at least get back to my purchase price. For example, when someone experiences enough investing heartbreak and portfolio frustration, they usually follow up their misfortune with additional calamitous decisions: In my earlier segment, Behavioral Finance: Understanding How We Are Wired , I detailed how our psychological makeup influences the financial choices that we make.

The main take-away had been that the average investor is not wired to separate emotions from the investment experience. It follows that without a disciplined investment approach, the average investor can find it very difficult to avoid the traps and significant errors associated with emotionally-charged decisions. So, if you agree that it is unfeasible to avoid being emotional human , then you can agree that a more disciplined approach is required.

One needs to minimize emotions that come from being human. Indeed, so many tend to assume that — no matter how bad the losses — the markets will eventually recover. In truth, they often do. Yet, an important question remains. How long does it actually take to recover? Thus, the natural erosion of purchasing power is like pouring salt on an open wound. In order to gauge the ruthless nature of long periods of futility, we need to look at two of the critical variables: In fact, when it comes to the world of investing, math and time exist on the same side of the wealth equation… and they are not mutually exclusive.

Although most investors say that they understand how it works, I still find many people astonished when I break it down into bite-sized concepts. Consider the chart below:. In actuality, though, that assumption is absolutely false. Although small losses can mislead us in our thinking — although the differences on smaller losses and recoveries may come down to decimal points — the relationship between gains and losses is woefully exponential.

So, the more you lose, the gains needed to get you back become exponentially greater. And when the gains you need to recoup losses require a lot of time to be realized, inflation is allowed to make a tough situation even worse. Your mortality limits the amount of time that you have to accomplish your financial goals. Simply put, you must avoid going backwards because you will not be able to get that time back. It follows that allowing your portfolio to get hit by large losses is like allowing your health to get hit by the devastating effects of cigarettes.

Still, the average investor usually takes his or her investment time horizon for granted by failing to employ a discipline that keeps losses from getting out of hand. Clearly, each person is different when it comes to defining a manageable time horizon. Teenagers picking stocks in an economics class obviously have much longer to invest than baby boomers nearing retirement have.

So, time becomes an even more precious commodity as our years tick by. Nevertheless, time is a constant no matter your age or risk profile. Whether you are the riskiest retiree or the most conservative something investor, a year is a year and a decade is a decade. Moreover, since nobody knows how much time they will end up with, allowing investments the chance to waste away is nothing less than catastrophic.

Using the most widely referenced benchmark for U. Also, you may recall, the market has historically doubled every 6. However, when we adjust for inflation i. By simply adding the second part to that statement, we may have undoubtedly invoked new emotions.

This brings us to the most important point that the previous chart makes. Consider the implications that the Maximum Years to Realize column has. Think about that… 20 years and nothing to show for it. Do you need some modern-day, real-life examples instead of historical data? Consider these examples of disasters that have yet to be resolved:.

Devastating markets are not as uncommon as some may assume. Total annualized return is an anemic 1. It is difficult to imagine someone advocating 15 years of buy-n-hold stock risk, only to have real money that barely grew at all. Neither your investments, nor the markets as a whole, will trade straight up, straight down, or absolutely sideways over time.

Well, this period began at the onslaught of the Great Depression, beginning in September of and lasting through July of All tallied, it equated to a zero percent real return for the period. Can you guess what your overall return would be? Yes, the roller coaster ride was still quite rough, but the ride was far more beneficial. Can you guess what your overall return would be then?

You doubled your money… by avoiding half of the downside and by only garnering half of the upside. And again, while the amusement park ride may not have felt particularly amusing, the discipline was entirely helpful for protecting and growing wealth.

The point to take away is that the stock market offers opportunity even within periods that seem inopportune on the surface. Quite simply, a systematic discipline takes a lot of the guesswork out of the equation. Thus, you can avoid the pitfalls that come with being human as well as make your investment experience much less stressful. By this point, I have shown you the disappointments that inevitably occur with being average. By revealing the emotions, thoughts and actions of the average investor, I identified how to avoid those mistakes which lead folks to miss out on securing their financial freedom.

There are steps that every investor should take to increase their likelihood of succeeding with less risk. I will walk you through some of those steps which can get you on the right path. Here, then, are some questions designed to help you achieve your financial goals.

Successful investors are indifferent when it comes to their investments. Yet falling in love with an investment is only a trait shared by the least capable.

I have been in the investment arena long enough to see the consequences that come with falling in love with a particular stock or particular mutual fund. Unfortunately, as humans, there are consequential flaws that come with investing in things that we feel connected to. In our minds, we know what the company is capable of; thus, the stock price should eventually reflect what we think we know. Unfortunately, for every logical reason we feel an investment should reach the moon, there are a hundred illogical reasons it will do the exact opposite.

Two, familiarity is often confused with the emotional baggage known as comfort. It explains how we can still love Apple Inc. MO and everything it stands for even though its stock could have made us a small fortune since its inception.

What I am saying is that an investment strategy which involves you being joined in holy matrimony is a recipe for disaster. In fact, divorcing the idea that your familiarity has any implications at all on the outcome of your investment is a necessary step in becoming a successful investor. Surely, the large banks and brokerage houses — with their armies of Ivy League statisticians and economists — have the resources to make highly informed decisions.

The tech bubble collapse in taught investors many lessons in chasing riches in overextended markets. Vast amounts of resources and knowledge were no match for the justification, nor willingness, to be highly leveraged in a speculative frenzy. In the late 90s, overexposure in tech was the disastrous norm. The mids were equally unkind. The financial crisis that lasted from to not only decimated the value of market-based securities, it destroyed property values as well.

Indeed, nearly all individuals, businesses and mega-multinationals would agree that the real estate market in the mids was a get-rich bubble with crazy valuations, as opposed to anything more practical. If you think access to knowledge and resources separates the professional investors from the average ones, you are sorely mistaken. What does separate the winners from the losers? Unfortunately, most people end up spinning their wheels as they continue to give into their greed and their fear.

Tapping into our core emotions is rarely the start of a sound investment decision. In contrast, taming them with a disciplined approach to money management is the best way to make progress, whether you do it yourself or hire a professional adviser. So… have you ever pursued hot stocks, five-star funds or hot fund managers? Studies have found that the brain activity of a person whose investments are making money is indistinguishable from the brain activity of a person who is high on cocaine.

Researchers have also found that trading stocks stimulates the same part of the brain as the area associated with sexual desire. Without a doubt, it feels very good to invest and make money. In fact, research has shown that when people lose money on their investments, the area of the brain linked to fear experiences immense arousal. The sickening pit in your stomach. Your body is reacting to chemical changes that occur in response to its fear mechanism — a physical manifestation of watching money vanish before your eyes.

There is a reason why the devastation of loss is three times more intense — three times more unforgettable — than the joy of gain. When those chemical reactions in the body respond to fear, the brain creates an indelible memory of that event.

It follows that people can recall frightful memories with greater ease long after they occur. Perhaps this is why investors remain extremely apprehensive putting money back into financial markets long after they have been burned. I often speak with people who abandoned stocks and bonds near the end of the Global Financial Crisis. I make no bones about my sentiments.

Specifically, the bearish devastation ended in March of , close to seven years ago. Missing out on the majority of a raging bull is just as foolish as holding onto investments that one ultimately sold for monstrous losses.

The fear of loss instigated one bad decision followed by another. Yet there is something to be said about the restorative power of market-based investing. Take a look at the table below.

Although it may feel like the stock market is riskier after an epic meltdown, data rarely support that fear. Again, booms follow busts. The mean annualized gain? Small-company stocks were even better. If you pull apart the total losses from all bear markets that have occurred since , the average bear market length was just shy of one year.

What do you get when you combine the booms with the busts? You get the results in the table below. There is little doubt about it. When one evaluates 90 years of performance data, time in the markets matter. Time out of the market, across all asset classes, may lead to something worse than missed opportunity. Unfortunately, investing success has never been as basic as buy, hold and hope for the best.

There are scores of gaping holes in that approach, not the least of which is the ill-conceived belief that historical performance averages supersede historical valuations. In fact, as of November of , U. It follows that it would be nothing short of amazing if we could assume, based on the previous table, that a Stocks, bonds and nearly all asset types do not play by the same mathematical rules as a straight-line calculation of an annual CD return.

As you can see, buy-n-holders may very well assume a However, even looking at a time horizon as long as 10 years, stock returns have rarely produced an average result. Instead, results more closely resemble an erratic roller coaster ride.

The ability for a buy-n-holder to achieve decent returns simply boils down to being in the right place at the right time. Not only does the average annual return of stocks drop to an inflation-adjusted 6.

Even if bad returns are possible, there are a whole lot of positive outcomes too, right? Yet the fear of loss always seems to trigger those chemical reactions that end with investors jumping off the emotionally charged roller coaster.

Indeed, research conducted by Dalbar Inc. Their findings showed that the average investor — realizing just a 2. The Dalbar research becomes even more instructive when viewed from yet another perspective. And then when the inevitable bear came mauling? As you can see, the tragedies for the typical investor are twofold. First, the idea that an investor will buy-n-hold is sheer folly. Fear of missing out leads to holding-n-hoping until the bitter end… where people eventually throw in the towel.

Meanwhile, fear of additional loss keeps an investor sidelined during phenomenal stock recoveries. Not if they expected 7. And the widely quoted average for stocks at If your first thought in seeing the above chart is utter disbelief, join the club. Those conversations shared a common theme: Are we so hard-wired that we are doomed to repeat patterns that kill our progress?

Or can we avoid making emotionally charged missteps? Can we tame the greed that is associated with trying to get ahead in late-stage cycles? Similarly, can we manage our investments more effectively so that fear of loss and the losses themselves are less nerve-wracking? There are two rules that an investment discipline must adhere to if one intends to successfully navigate a portfolio through tumultuous markets and the emotional impulses.

First, the discipline must neutralize emotional cues i. Sadly, many investors believe that buy-n-hold is a disciplined investment strategy. One apportions a portfolio across an appropriate mix of assets where the initial effort to diversify keeps emotions in check forever more. Can one argue that doing nothing as an investor — buying diversified assets, holding those assets, hoping they do well — is a disciplined approach that neutralizes greed and fear?

Of course, an investor would pretty much have to turn away from every financial show, report, friend, as well as the moment — since the discipline of doing nothing is a bit like meditation.

And then, what about the second rule? In addition to neutralizing greed and fear, what about fostering emotional stability? In other words, it is one thing to banish negative inputs. Buy-n-hold fails miserably in this regard because it assumes that people invest in a vacuum. Do large-scale drops in account value — by themselves — promote unwavering confidence? It tends to occur as account values are falling to unimaginable lows. In contrast, our investment discipline emanated from the reality that bad investment decisions start with greed and end with fear.

Quite simply, allowing emotional cues to dictate investment choices is a recipe for a meat loaf made with SPAM. It is critical to recognize that you are not likely to remain emotionally unaffected by your investments. Granting your portfolio leeway either consciously or subconsciously? Sure, you can do that.

Still, leeway can turn into discomfort and then into outright agony. Keep in mind, most things in life can be plotted along a spectrum. Our emotions are no different. If, however, something pushes a person outside of a comfort zone, the experience causes a response to subdue the emotional impulse. When it comes to investing, these are the circumstances which can lead to extremely ill-advised moves.

Sidestepping these circumstances is critical so that our emotions are kept in balance. Rather than relying on our gut instinct, which may or may not get it right, we prefer unemotional, mechanical guidance. The mechanical signals serve as a foundational backdrop for our active approach to asset management. The information-driven, non-emotional indications promote emotional stability by limiting exposure to harsh downtrends.

Equally compelling, the same indicators also facilitate greater participation in uptrends. For instance, we may put together an investment plan based on a generally accepted asset mix for a target allocation.

We start there… using the target during favorable investing environments. That last sentence is key. They may change quickly. They may change over a long period of time. Regardless, we have an unemotional, tactical plan in place to account for the dynamic environment. After all, when you employ an approach that recognizes the certainty of change, you can avoid the emotional roller coaster that threatens your financial freedom. Our digital video recorder DVR is jam-packed with programs that I can barely tolerate in second advertisements, let alone entire episodes.

Although I have explained to my wife that the shows are every bit as scripted as the live-audience sitcoms of yesteryear, she still adores them. So, I make a chivalrous effort to show interest. What else can I say? Happy wife, happy life. As fate would have it, we happened upon a series that we both enjoy. The documentary showcases the trials and tribulations of the individual as he acclimates to a large-scale production. Viewers get a glimpse at the drama, personalities and moving parts involved in the filmmaking industry.

Recently, my wife and I watched an episode that revolved around the film script. The evolution of the script — from concept and rough draft, to rewrites and working drafts — was intriguing.

And, being the investment advisor that often ponders the unimaginable, I began thinking…. What if you were approached by a screenwriter who wanted to create a feature film about your financial future? What would that script look like? Your school-aged children, destined for Ivy League educations, might have accompanying parts.

Your favorite aunt who has moved to an expensive assisted living facility may require some film time. Consider the excerpt below from the first draft of my imaginary script. Oh, come on now. I can tolerate some risk, but I do not know if I am as comfortable with so much in stocks as I was when I was We will slowly lower your allocation to stocks and slowly increase your allocation to bonds as you get up there in years.

I also have a grandson now. I would like to put away a little something for his future. As I begin developing my imaginary screenplay, I realized that I left out a critical element. Market a generous, compassionate soul? Market burns down your square foot McMansion, leaving you to sell keepsakes and family jewelry to pay for a rundown RV that you park on the bad side of town. One way or another, it seems, the final draft will determine whether Mr.

Market is heinous or generous. So what type of movie are we going to create? And when I move in to sink the bond market with a flurry of interest rate torpedoes near the end of your employed years, what then?

Your bond allocation will get killed… along with your hopes of retirement! Market laughs maniacally You: We will simply hold steady. Besides, a rising interest rate environment is usually conducive to a strong stock market.

Your stock gains should help offset your bond losses. More maniacal laughter You: You better hope little Johnny can throw a football well enough to supplement those higher education costs. Or maybe he will like community college. Still more barbarous laughter You: Remember, we are in this for the long term. Besides, the market almost always makes money over long periods of time like 18 years.

Even more maniacal laughter You: Ever hear of Detroit, Puerto Rico, Greece? Muni bonds are going to be what mortgage-backed securities were back in and Devilish laughter continues You: My mom was invested in Senior Income funds in and and those things were chock-full of mortgage-backed securities! Again, we are in this for the long haul. In this snippet of dialog, Mr. Market plays a diabolical role. Worse yet, the person you have hired to protect your portfolio has no real solutions for the villainous Mr.

This script will flop in the opening week. On the other hand, perhaps this screenplay can receive a happier ending. Of course you would. I think another rewrite is in order. We can take a look at that.

Also, we do not have to leave every dollar exposed to stock or bond risk at all times. That said, it is possible that you would have more bond exposure as you grow older.

We can handle rising rates. I will simply reduce the bond allocation and raise more cash to drastically limit the damage. I may also elect to hedge some of those assets with an investment category that would directly benefit from a rising interest rate environment should the trend continue. Bears of that magnitude do not occur overnight. I will raise cash along the way, using unemotional stop-limit orders, trendlines, and other technical tools to ensure that the portfolio avoids a big loss and remains on target.

Just like I would do with the rest of the portfolio…I would tactically shift your allocation — raising more cash — to drastically limit the damage. Wow… it really seems like I am in good hands. This last script seems far more likely to end happily ever after. Although the market retains its villainous role, we now have a financial professional swooping in to save the day. Ironically, in real life, the average investor rarely has plans to deviate from a script where the market is playing nice. Your portfolio, much like a screenplay, should evolve over time.

That is the quintessential difference between static asset allocation and tactical asset allocation. It also happened to be down 6. Unfortunately, the true downside story had yet to develop. Scores of so-called trading circuit breakers were tripped, halting many stocks in their tracks. In a nutshell, it had been designed to pre-empt panicky traders from panicking.

It was intended to ensure orderly trading amid extreme financial market volatility. Up until that Monday in August, the rule had only been used about 70 times, with nearly half of those occurring during the financial crisis in And although all of those previous occurrences were rather uneventful for exchange traded funds ETFs , this time was different.

The problem stemmed from the fact that stock ETFs represent a basket of underlying holdings. And when one of those stocks within that basket has been halted due to panic-fueled selling, a problem occurs within the ETF as well. You see, an ETF has no circuit breaking mechanism in place to protect it. The ETF still trades in spite of the fact that not all of its underlying stocks are actively pricing.

So how does one arrive at a fair valuation for the ETF when it is unknown what each and every underlying position is currently worth? This fueled the panic to get out of those stock ETFs, driving their prices even lower. The resulting consequence of the gap in ETF trading protection was alarming. For those investors who sold into the panic, or had stop-loss orders on those affected ETFs like IVV, were harshly penalized for doing so.

Nevertheless, we already had safeguards in place to protect our clients from those types of rare market events. We diversify our market access for the same reasons we diversify our investments across multiple asset classes.

We use individual securities, like individual stocks and bonds. This approach allows us to diversify our portfolio in more ways than one. Thus, the diversification of market access reduces the risk of holding one classification alone. This protects us from the threat of our orders getting filled at the wrong end of an extreme trading range, where buy orders execute near intraday highs and sell orders execute near intraday lows. For example, those investors holding IVV may have had a stop order on the books at Once the stop price of is breached, that same order becomes a market order which, again, is filled at the next quickest available bid price.

Quite simply, that means the order could very well have been filled at a price as low as This scenario is even more tragic considering the fact that IVV eventually recovered all of its losses and closed up on the day, ending the trading session at Instead, using stop-limit orders is more advisable.

For example, that same investor could have placed a stop-limit order at Once that stop level had been breached, the order becomes a limit order which can only execute at or above the limit price of All of that intraday noise from to This can sometimes lead to trades executing over the average price span of multiple days instead of just one.

It can also mean a better overall average execution price since calmer heads usually prevail following a panicky event. In sum, there are no perfect investments just like there are no perfect investment strategies. And, as is the case with pretty much everything in life, you must find an appropriate balance between a give and a take, a weaknesses and a strength.

Although NYSE Rule 48 did expose a chink in the armor of some ETFs, one can already anticipate that the exchanges are working to identify a better solution. Even without that solution, though, there are multiple ways to mitigate the risk of ETF ownership within your portfolio.

Few investment structures offer as many benefits, from diversification to trade-ability to tax efficiency to ultra-low costs. The Emotions of Investing Even before we buy our very first investment, we find ourselves riding the rails of an emotional roller coaster.

Consider the following example: So who is the better money manager? Stock Market Gurus We can all agree that one correct assessment does not a genius make. Investing Using Insurance Principles The simplest way to explain risk management is by comparing it to something we can all relate to, insurance. Welcome to the wonderful world of investment math.

Bear Market Math Bear market math is the term we use to describe a painful mathematic reality; that is, the more money you lose, the time and magnitude of the return needed to recover increases exponentially. Here is a short list of things people tell themselves as they are squandering time and money: The Investment Strategy Spectrum A well-rounded investment strategy is as important to an investor as a flight plan is to a pilot. Below is a graphical representation of our interpretation of the investment strategy spectrum: Can you guess what your portfolio would have been worth after that long decade?

If you think this story sounds highly unlikely, consider the chart below. Mental Shortcutting In psychology, the technical term for mental shortcutting is heuristics. The cognitive dissonance could go something like this: Think about some of the circumstances leading into Many tech stocks had been doubling in a matter of months!

Fund managers loaded up on dot-com names to keep up with the wildly successful NASDAQ; it became nearly impossible for the so-called professionals to avoid being over-allocated to the technology sector. Young guns ridiculed the stars from yesteryear, particularly Warren Buffett. Most regarded the 70s icon as a doddering old fool. An Unfeasible Investment Strategy My first memory of investing occurred at the age of Übersicht Die Top-Frauen der deutschen Wirtschaft. Jahresrückblick Haben Sie aufgepasst?

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